GDP growth at 4.9% versus 4.5% in FY13 - Stock Market Pulse

Government pegs GDP growth at 4.9% for FY 1314 versus 4.5% in FY13

India’s economic GDP growth rate for the current fiscal has been estimated at 4.9%. Economic growth rate rose than the previous fiscal year. The rise was due to improved performance in the agriculture and allied sectors. The CSO (Central Statistics Office) had lowered GDP growth for fiscal 2012-13 to 4.5% in its revised estimates from an earlier provisional forecast of 5%.

The CSO has projected a GDP growth rate of 4.6% for fiscal 2013-14, in agriculture and allied sectors. A rise from 1.4% as compared to a year earlier. However, manufacturing is expected to register a contraction of 0.2% for the current fiscal year, as compared with growth of 1.1% previous year.

The GDP growth for the current fiscal year estimated at 4.9% improved in the second half, given that GDP grew at 4.6% in the April-September period.

According to advance estimates, the service sector is likely to grow 11.2%, as compared to 10.9% for fiscal 2012-13. This includes finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors. Mining and quarry is likely to contract 1.9%, compared with a 2.2% decline in production a year ago. Growth in construction is likely to improve from 1.1% in 2012-13 to 1.7% this fiscal.

Growth in electricity, gas and water production is also estimated to improve from 2.3% in 2012-13 to 6% this fiscal year.The trade, hotel, transportation and communication sectors too are projected to grow by 3.5%. Community social and personal services would grow at 7.4% as compared with 5.3% for previous fiscal year.

The CSO releases advance GDP growth estimates before the end of the financial year to enable the government to formulate various estimates for inclusion in the Budget.

Per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is likely to attain a level of Rs 39,961 as compared to the first revised estimate for the year 2012-13 of Rs 38,856.

The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.8 per cent as against the previous year’s estimate of 2.1%, CSO said.

Per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to be Rs 74,920 compared with Rs 67,839 during 2012-13, a rise of 10.4%.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), an indicator of investment, is forecast at Rs 32.2 lakh crore at current prices as against Rs 30.7 lakh crore in 2012-13.

At constant (2004-05) prices, GFCF is estimated at Rs 20.1 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs 20.0 lakh crore.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4% and 33.9%, respectively in 2012-13.

The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices has gone down from 2.6% in 2012-13 to 2.1% in 2013-14, the statement added.